Campaign posters for Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Istanbul (tolga ildun/Shutterstock)
Turkey closed its most important electoral day in decades on Sunday, May 14. The ensuing vote count was enveloped in maximum tension throughout the night, and the sitting president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, came close to victory in this first round. However, the early-morning results confirmed that a second round will be necessary to determine whether Erdogan will remain in office for another five years or if opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu will be able to oust him from power and put an end to the president’s 20 years in office at the helm of the Republic of Turkey.
Voter participation reached a record number: 88% of voters went to the polls, which offers an idea of the importance of these elections. More than 50% of the vote was needed to win in the first round. Erdogan got 49.5%, while Kilicdaroglu got 44.89%. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, leader of the far-right nationalist alliance ATA, won 5.17%, which means these nearly three million votes are now the key to taking the presidency in the upcoming second round. The last candidate, Muharrem Ince, barely received 0.44% of the vote.
The second-round runoff will take place on May 28, which means two intense weeks of campaigning before voters visit the polls again, this time to decide between the two winners of the first round: Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. The first-round elections took place just three months after a devastating earthquake killed more than 50,000 people in the country and displaced approximately five million others. In addition, Turkey is immersed in a deep economic crisis that worsened with the pandemic and will be further affected by the challenge of post-quake reconstruction.
The far-right –key to the second round
To win in the second round, gaining the support of Sinan Ogan’s extreme right supporters is key. Aware of his role in these decisive elections, Ogan announced in an interview with Reuters that he will consult with his voter base before deciding which candidate he will endorse. However, he has already announced his “red lines”: the fight against [Kurdish] terrorism and the expulsion of Syrian refugees. He further noted the maintenance of the secular principles of the Turkish republic founded by Atatürk.
To win decisive support from Ogan, Kilicdaroglu’s opposition coalition – made up of six parties ranging from the centre-left to the nationalist right – would have to move away from the pro-Kurdish party (HDP), which has publicly supported the opposition candidacy from outside the coalition. On the other hand, Kilicdaroglu would meet the condition of secularism, since Kilicdaroglu’s party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), is a secular social democratic party. It remains to be seen what decision the candidate will make in a possible negotiation with Ogan. The far-right politician has announced that he will sign a public and transparent agreement of the commitments reached with whatever candidate he ultimately decides to endorse.
For the first time in 20 years, the opposition has a fighting chance of seizing power from Erdogan
As for Erdogan, he has received the Kurdish Islamist party’s endorsement. What’s more, Ogan was expelled from the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), a long-time ally of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan’s party. The expulsion has made him very critical of the president, gaining him the nationalist vote that is dissatisfied with Erdogan. Furthermore, the Islamist underpinnings of the current president’s program are an obstacle to gaining Ogan’s support, whose political program calls for guarantees of secularism, while Erdogan has made concessions to Islamist parties in exchange for their support.
The opposition’s program
The significance of these elections lies in that, for the first time in 20 years, the opposition has a real chance of wresting power from Erdogan. In addition, its program includes the return to the parliamentary system, which the current Turkish president changed to a presidential system, allowing him to eliminate the figure of the prime minister and monopolize the executive power and part of the legislative and judicial powers.
Since the 2017 referendum, which made this regime change effective, Turkey has taken a turn towards authoritarianism under Erdogan. This situation has made it possible for very different parties to come together, led by the main opposition party, the CHP. In addition to returning to the parliamentary system and the balance of powers, Kilicdaroglu’s electoral program includes returning fundamental rights and freedoms that have deteriorated in recent years in Turkey.
In fact, the opposition has thus far campaigned at a disadvantage since Erdogan has control of the main media and there is censorship on social networks. The pro-Kurdish party has had it especially difficult, as it has faced possible banning by the courts, which has affected their campaign, but has not prevented the party from renewing its position as the third parliamentary power.
The opposition coalition has tried to run a clean campaign, without criticizing the government and without politicizing of the earthquake disaster. In foreign policy, they have promised closer collaboration with the European Union and the United States, as well as a more measured relationship with Russia in the Ukraine conflict, in which Turkey is a key mediator.
A decisive second round
Erdogan goes into the second round with the advantage of having obtained the highest percentage of votes in the first round. In addition, the AKP party has the greatest numbers of seats in Parliament and, alongside its political allies, is able to secure an absolute majority in the chamber. This means Erdogan can play the stability card in the second round. If Kilicdaroglu were to win the presidency, he would have to contend with the AKP control in the Assembly. This would inevitably lead to confrontations and political deadlocks that would prevent the reforms promised by the opposition from passing.
The next two weeks will be decisive in attracting undecided votes, mainly the nearly three million people who voted for the extreme right candidate Sinan Ogan. It remains to be seen who the nationalist leader will endorse and the weight his support wields on voters’ choices.
Although the country’s election day on Sunday took place without altercations, the polarization in the streets has divided Turkey. During the tense vote count, the opposition candidate accused Erdogan of “blocking the will of the people”, while the sitting president called on his supporters to stay at the polls during the count. May 28 will effectively be a referendum on Erdogan, with the possibility of a new political party taking the helm of the country, and decisive in determining the course of the next five years in Turkey.
Translated from Spanish by Lucia K. Maher